On the Current State of Affairs in Russia and Mockva9мая 2012

One of my friends and colleagues is originally from the Czech Republic and grew up while the Soviet Union was in place. He’s interested in the current political and economic climate in Russia today and especially since Vladimir Putin is returning as president. I wrote him a message and thought this might be of some interest as a posting on my blog. Below is the text of the message to my friend.


Lee-


Putin was very popular during his first term as president but there’s a significant opposition to him this time around – he was sworn in as president Monday the 7th. Russia’s economy and federal budget is heavily based on oil, natural gas and minerals and during the 90s that seemed to satisfy the country. Now the consensus is that oil prices will eventually drop and reserves of oil still in the ground will start decreasing. The consensus of many economists is that Russia has to diversify its economy and encourage foreign investment which Russia and Putin never encouraged in the past. Russia has not been a particularly “foreign industry friendly” environment until recently. It is said there is a stifling bureaucracy, a lot of corruption and resistance to foreign investment from other countries. Also, the Russian people seemed to be alright with a more authoritarian government during Putin’s first terms as President – probably a more comfortable position to take as the country emerged from the Soviet Union. This times there is a large middle-class that is growing (we’ve even noticed a difference since we arrived here last August) and doesn’t want an authoritarian strong-man like Putin. The middle class has also transitioned into Russia’s brand of capitalism and there doesn’t seem to be much interest to going back to the socialist mode except maybe for people in their 70s and 80s who only knew the communist ways. Older people apparently are having a harder time adjusting to the new economy and wouldn’t mind going back to the old ways – this doesn’t seem at all likely – younger people like the new ways and the freedom it brings too much.


Also, the political systems is corrupt and many were unhappy with last year’s parliamentary elections who thought the system was rigged in favor of Putin and his party. There are still many demonstrations by people who were unhappy with the last elections. One major issue is the choice of governors throughout Russia. During his first terms Putin abolished election of governors and started appointing them himself. There is currently legislation before the Duma that would restore elections by the people. Many are waiting to see if Putin will agree.


So it remains to be seen how Putin will do. If he reverts back to us authoritarian style of his first two terms it looks like he will get a lot of resistance. A lot of economists and political scientists feels that that might happen. If so, many are questioning whether Putin would be successful running for another term as president after the end of this term. There are opposition parties and groups popping up in the days leading up to this inauguration last Monday. I was surprised how many people came back to demonstrate since last December when the demonstrations were very large. I was thinking that things would calm down after elections last November but it looks like the opposition is here to stay and Putin may not find things as easy compared with his first two terms.


We’ll have to see. Putin’s inauguration was Monday. Today (Wednesday) is Victory Day so Putin and the Parliament will be getting back to work shortly and we’ll see what happens – I’ll keep you posted.


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